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45 Days or 17? The Negotiation That Could Decide Moviegoing’s Future

ddailyshow

2026-01-27

11 min read

45 vs 17 days: which theatrical window wins for theaters, streaming and indie cinemas? An investigative explainer with films at risk.

Hook: Why you should care if the window is 45 days, 17—or something in between

Movie lovers, podcast addicts and people who still think popcorn is a personality trait: you're caught in a negotiation that could remake how we watch movies. Is your next Saturday night ritual a dim theater with overpriced soda, or a couch click and a 4K render? The answer may hinge on whether Warner Bros. Discovery lands at 45 days — Ted Sarandos’ “hard number” — or the gossip-fueled rumor that Netflix prefers 17 days. This isn’t corporate theater nerding; it’s a direct line to what shows up in your feed, what indie cinemas survive, and which big-budget tentpoles still feel like events.

First, the news in one blunt paragraph (inverted pyramid, adult version)

In January 2026, conflicting industry reports surfaced: The New York Times published an interview in which Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said Netflix would operate a theatrical business with a 45-day exclusivity window if it acquires Warner Bros. Discovery, insisting “I want to win opening weekend.” But Deadline—citing sources close to negotiations—previously said Netflix had been supportive of a 17-day window. Reuters and other outlets summarized the tug-of-war, which sits amid an active contested Netflix bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and a broader industry rethinking of theatrical windows after pandemic-era experiments.

Why the difference between 45 and 17 days matters—quick take

Revenue cadence: A longer window funnels more box office (and showroom premium spend) to theaters; a short window accelerates revenue shift to streaming/subscriptions.
Marketing strategy: 45 days sustains word-of-mouth momentum; 17 days compresses the conversation and can flatten a long-tail bump.
Exhibitors' bargaining power: Longer windows preserve leverage for chains and indies; ultra-short windows force theaters to demand higher minimum guarantees or premium deals.
Creative incentives: Short windows favor franchise tentpoles with built-in audiences; indies and awards hopefuls lose theatrical discovery time.

What's a theatrical window, anyway? (Short answer for attention spans)

Theatrical window = the period a film is exclusive to cinemas before it is available on other platforms (streaming, PVOD, or home video). For decades this window was long and predictable. Since 2020, studios have compressed it, experimented with day-and-date, or used hybrid deals. Now the industry is debating whether the future is a middle-ground compromise (45 days) or a much shorter ramp to streaming (17 days).

Where these numbers came from and why reporters disagree

Two credible, conflicting items set off the debate in January 2026:

From The New York Times: Ted Sarandos said Netflix would “run that business largely like it is today, with 45-day windows,” adding “I want to win opening weekend.”

And before that, Deadline reported multiple sources indicating Netflix had been signaling support for a 17-day theatrical exclusivity period. Both outlets are reliable—but they’re reading different pockets of the industry: executive public posture (Sarandos) versus inside negotiators and exhibitors who’ve heard different pitches.

Industry context in 2026: why this debate feels louder now

The stakes are higher in 2026 because several trends converged late 2025 and early 2026:

M&A turbulence: The contested Netflix bid for Warner Bros. Discovery magnified attention on distribution clauses that would carry across legacy franchises (DCU, Harry Potter catalogue, etc.).
Subscriber-first calculus: Streaming platforms are optimizing lifetime value (LTV) of subscribers; faster windows can be modeled to lift streaming-to-subscription lift and engagement.
Exhibitor pressure: Chains have regrouped post-pandemic with dynamic pricing, concessions bundles and premium formats—but many independents remain fragile.
Data sophistication: Studios now have finely grained streaming analytics from 2023–2025 experiments, enabling title-by-title window tailoring rather than one-size-fits-all policies; demand for transparent reporting is rising.

How 45 days changes the game (the theaters' dream)

A 45-day window is not ancient—it's a compromise between the old 90-day regime and the ultra-short modern experiments. Practically, it does several things:

Protects holdover legs: Films that rely on word-of-mouth—indies, mid-budget comedies, awards hopefuls—get more time to build audience until streaming arrives.
Helps opening weekend economics: If a film has 45 days of exclusive theatrical time, studios can stagger marketing spend to maximize opening weekend and then sustain theatrical PR for weeks.
Preserves premium pricing: IMAX, Dolby and 3D formats can command higher margins with more guaranteed time before an at-home option dilutes demand.

Industry insiders say a 45-day policy would be the most exhibitor-friendly outcome a streaming studio could offer without reverting to pre-streaming norms. It signals that the platform values the theatrical ecosystem enough to protect it for a meaningful window.

How 17 days changes the game (streamers' power move)

A 17-day window is essentially a fast-lane to home viewing. The logic for a streamer is crisp:

Faster revenue capture: Subscriber engagement spikes when fresh titles appear in-home quickly—especially for global franchises where marquee awareness is already built.
Lower marketing friction: Compressing the theatrical window concentrates the campaign, making it easier to convert buzz to subscription activity when the film lands on the platform.
Catalog activation: Once the film is on streaming, it acts as a permanent catalog asset driving long-tail value—arguably more important to Netflix’s valuation than one theatrical run.

But 17 days also hands a lot of leverage to streaming platforms and negotiators. Exhibitors hate it because it collapses the economic runway for a theatrical-only strategy and forces reliance on day-one box office returns.

What this means for opening weekend grosses

The math is messy, but patterns emerge from past experiments and analyst models. Opening weekend is a behavioral product—audiences respond to scarcity, social proof and eventization.

45-day scenario: Studios can build a pre-opening push and then rely on continued theatrical presence to capture late-arriving viewers. For films that grow via word-of-mouth, a 45-day window can increase cumulative box office by double-digit percentages versus a very short window.
17-day scenario: Opening weekend becomes even more decisive. Studios that can “frontload” marketing and turn fandom into immediate ticket sales may see similar opening numbers, but films that normally rely on a multi-week build could see their total theatrical gross collapse—because the streaming option diverts second-wave viewers.

Box-office analysts and exhibitor groups estimate that mid-budget dramas and indie films could see a 20–40% reduction in theatrical gross under ultra-short windows, while franchise tentpoles might be less affected in absolute dollars but could lose international ancillary revenue and premium format tests.

Which films lose most? A list of winners and victims

Some titles are resilient. Others are structurally harmed by a shorter theatrical exclusivity period. Below is a practical list of film types and specific examples (past films used as case studies) that would be most at risk if the industry trends toward 17-day windows.

Most at risk: indies and slow-burn award hopefuls

Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022): This A24 breakout built momentum over weeks through word-of-mouth and specialty screenings. A 17-day window would likely have cut that curve short and cost sustained legs.
CODA (2021): A small distributor-driven title that benefited from a longer theatrical window and awards season visibility. Immediate streaming would have reduced the theatrical footprint that helped it earn audience buy-in.
Triangle of Sadness (2022): Festival-driven conversation and slow-burn award chatter translated to momentum theatres needed time to capture. 17 days can choke that all-important discovery period.

Highly vulnerable: mature-target adult dramas and platform pictures

Mid-budget dramas that depend on older, slower-to-act audiences—these groups often respond in week two and three.
Documentaries and specialty fares that rely on curated theatrical events.

More resilient: franchise tentpoles and built-in IP

Marvel-type or DC tentpoles often earn most of their money early and on international markets; their opening weekends are less dependent on a long domestic window.
Animated family releases can be mixed—some families watch in theaters quickly, but extended theatrical presence helps reach late adopters and school groups.

Case study: If 17 days had been the rule for late-2020s hits

Take a hypothetical rerun: If “Everything Everywhere All at Once” had been pulled to streaming after 17 days, its theatrical cumulative would likely have been smaller, and some of its awards momentum, which depends on theatrical eligibility and exposure, could have been diluted. That’s not speculation; directors, distributors and awards bodies have publicly argued that theatrical visibility matters for prestige and downstream streaming performance.

How different stakeholders should act—practical advice

This section is for people who can do something about the window wars: exhibitors, studio negotiators, indie programmers, creators, and audiences.

For theater owners (chains and independents)

Negotiate title-by-title deals: Don’t accept a blanket window. Demand minimum guarantees and tiered revenue shares, especially for premium format runs; streaming platforms are experimenting with microdrops and live-ops that change when you get paid.
Eventize programming: Host Q&As, festivals and limited-run art series to build loyalty that short streaming windows can’t replicate; consider compact pop-up infrastructure like compact POS & micro-kiosks for merch and membership sales.
Dynamic pricing & membership: Use subscriptions and variable pricing for off-peak displays so you’re not one product away from emptiness.

For studios and streamers

Use a title-based approach: Not every film benefits from 17 days. Model windows based on genre, audience demographics and predicted LTV to subscribers.
Offer transparent reporting: Provide exhibitors with streaming conversion projections tied to window choices to build trust in shared upside; follow responsible data and provenance practices.
Protect indie pipelines: Consider guaranteed longer windows or revenue-sharing for specialty films—public goodwill and awards payoff have value.

For indie cinemas and programmer-curators

Double down on community experiences: If exclusivity shortens, exclusivity of experience becomes your defense. Local festivals, director nights, and education programs matter; use neighborhood forums to coordinate community marketing and build micro-recognition.
Partner with streamers: Negotiate short-run exclusives or hybrid events where the streamer pays a premium to premiere at local theaters before platform launch; consult hybrid festival playbooks for format ideas.

For creators (directors, producers, agents)

Negotiate windows in contracts: Treat theatrical windows like revenue waterfalls—artists should secure bonuses tied to theatrical grosses, not just streaming performance; see debates about creator compensation and platform ethics.
Plan festival strategies: Festivals can create theatrical demand that survives a shorter window; design campaigns accordingly.

For audiences

Vote with your feet: If theaters matter to you, go early and often—attendance data still influences studio calculus.
Support local indies: Buy a ticket, not just a tweet. Indie houses need foot traffic more than brand tweets.

Negotiation architecture: the realistic middle paths

The real outcome is likely to be hybrid and negotiated. Expect:

Title tiering: Blockbusters get shorter windows because they frontload global box office; indies and prestige titles get longer windows.
Performance triggers: Windows that are conditional: if a film hits X domestic gross, its window shortens; if it underperforms, it stays in theaters longer.
Geographic splits: Different windows by region depending on streaming penetration and box-office dynamics—regional economies matter and local recovery trends (e.g., Europe’s 2026 cost-of-living shift) will influence exhibitor resilience.

Longer-term predictions (2026 and beyond)

Based on 2025–2026 trends and the Netflix/WBD saga, here are reasoned predictions:

Negotiated pluralism: No single window fits all titles. We’ll see a mix: 17-day for global tentpoles in many markets, 45-day or longer for specialty titles; studios will need flexible ops similar to portfolio & edge distribution reviews to manage multiple release tracks.
Exhibitor innovation: Theaters will double down on premium experiences (eventized plays, dine-in, live extras) to defensibly charge more.
Contractual transparency: Studios that can prove streaming-to-subscription lift from quick windows will win more leverage; transparency will be demanded by exhibitors.
Policy noise: Expect trade groups and possibly regulators to scrutinize major acquisitions and distribution clauses when a dominant streaming platform controls both content and windows.

What to watch next (news signals that will tell us the winner)

Public statements from Ted Sarandos and Warner Bros. Discovery about distribution commitments (NYT quote already in the public record).
Contract filings or exhibitor statements detailing minimum guarantees tied to Netflix/WBD films.
Real-world box-office trends for films released with ultra-short windows versus 45-day windows—especially in Q2–Q3 2026.
Any regulatory scrutiny tied to the potential Netflix-WBD acquisition and distribution control.

Quick checklist: What exhibitors and creators should do this week

Exhibitors: Audit upcoming slate and prepare title-by-title counteroffers with financial scenarios for 17 vs 45-day windows.
Creators: Talk to your agent about contractual protections—box office bonuses, minimum theatrical guarantees, or extended theatrical holds for festival-run titles.
Indie cinemas: Line up community events and partnership pitches to present to streamers as value-adds in negotiations.

Final verdict: The future will be negotiated, not decreed

We’re not going back to 90-day exclusivity, and we’re unlikely to see a universal 17-day rule imposed across every title. The next 12–24 months will be messy negotiation, live experiments and public posturing—led by blockbuster economics during the acquisition battles that are defining 2026’s media landscape.

Whether you prefer long theater runs or the convenience of instant streaming, this fight matters. The winners will be the companies and theaters that build flexible, title-specific deals and the audiences that show up to reward theatrical experiences.

Call to action

Want a daily dose of movie industry scoops, hot takes and practical survival tips for indie cinemas and creators? Subscribe to our newsletter and tell us which upcoming film you think would be strangled by a 17-day window. If you run a theater or work at a studio and have a perspective on the negotiations—email our investigations desk. This conversation is still being written, and votes (and data) from real audiences will decide the outcome.

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Senior editor and content strategist. Writing about technology, design, and the future of digital media. Follow along for deep dives into the industry's moving parts.